To model relative procedural costs, risks, and benefits of sequential versus combined ablation strategies.
The decision model compares a sequential ablation strategy of atrial flutter ablation, followed by future PVI if necessary, with an initial combined flutter and preventive PVI ablation strategy. Assumptions are AF incidence 20% per year, PVI success rate 70%, PVI complication rate 4%, atrial flutter complication rate 1%, and costs $13,056 for PVI and $8,466 for atrial flutter ablation.
The sequential ablation strategy is less expensive, at 1.4 vs 1.6 expected flutter ablation equivalents (FAE) ($11,852 vs $13,545) per patient, and entails less average risk, at 2% vs 4%. A combined ablation strategy is more expensive if the relative cost of PVI is more than 24.6% higher than atrial flutter ablation. A combined ablation strategy has higher total risk if PVI procedural risk is 24.6% more than atrial flutter ablation.
Under base case assumptions of relative cost of PVI to flutter ablation 1.5 and relative risk 4, a sequential ablation approach has less total expected cost and less expected risk. There appears to be no compelling reason to adopt a combined ablation approach into standard practice. Nomograms are presented to allow the reader to assess which strategy is preferred according to local relative costs and risk.