Macro fundamentals as a source of stock market volatility in China: A GARCH-MIDAS approach

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• 作者：Eric Girardin ; Roselyne Joyeux
• 关键词：C14 ; C22 ; C58 ; G10 ; G15 ; E44
• 刊名：Economic Modelling
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：August, 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：34
• 期：Complete
• 页码：59-68
• 全文大小：870 K

文摘

In order to shed new light on the influence of volume and economic fundamentals on the long-run volatility of the Chinese stock market we follow the methodology introduced by and to account for the effects of macro fundamentals, and augment it with speculative factors. We show that the Chinese A-share market presented speculative characteristics before WTO entry in late 2001. However, after that date macroeconomic fundamentals and their volatility played an increasing role in the A-share market, especially CPI inflation, at the expense of speculative factors, proxied by volume. The B-share market has shown speculative characteristics since it was opened to domestic investors in 2001. However the disconnect of long-run stock market volatility from real economic activity in China is particularly noteworthy.