The accuracy of preliminary cost estimates in Public Works Department (PWD) of Peninsular Malaysia
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- 作者：Mohd Azrai Azman ; Zulkiflee Abdul-Samad ; Suraya Ismail
- 关键词：ANOVA ; analysis of variance ; CV ; coefficient of variation ; GFA ; gross floor area ; LMR ; linear multiple regression analysis ; m2 ; meter square ; unit of area in the International System of Units (SI) ; MOF ; Ministry of Finance ; PDA ; preliminary detailed abstr
- 刊名：International Journal of Project Management
- 出版年：2013
- 出版时间：October, 2013
- 年：2013
- 卷：31
- 期：7
- 页码：994-1005
- 全文大小：435 K
文摘
This paper presents the accuracy of preliminary cost estimates prepared by Public Works Department (PWD), which is the largest public construction management in Malaysia. It attempts to understand the Quantity Surveyors' (QS) estimation accuracy in relation to public projects. This study analyses 83 projects of estimates and tender bids. The analysis includes three (3) estimating targets i.e. lowest bid, accepted bid and mean of the bids. To broaden the study, 344 QS involved in the procurement answered the questionnaires. Linear multiple regression analysis on project characteristics shows that project size, number of bidders, location and type of schools affect the bias. Contract period affects the consistency. The use of mean of the bids is the best-fit target to explain the bias in terms of adjusted R2. The accuracy may improve if sufficient design information is available, proper cost planning and improving the application of historical cost data. As an alternative, the phenomenon of overestimation is resulted from government directive instruction, which could challenge the rational of accurate estimate.