We investigated ASBO patients at 2 different periods to derive and validate a clinical prediction model for risk of operation.
One hundred fifty-four patients were enrolled into the derivation cohort and 96 into the validation cohort. Based on the derived scoring, including age ≥65 years, presence of ascites, and gastrointestinal drainage volume >500 mL on day 3, each patient was classified into 1 of 4 risk classes from low risk to high risk. When applied to the validation cohort, the positive predictive value (PPV) for operation in the high-risk class was 72 % , while the negative predictive value (NPV) in the low-risk class was 100 % with high sensitivity (100 % ) and specificity (96 % ).
The prediction model performs well for risk stratification of need for surgical intervention following conservative strategy among ASBO patients.