Rationality and seasonality: Evidence from inflation forecasts

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• 作者：Nathan Goldstein^a ; ^{Nathan.Goldstein@biu.ac.il} ; Ben-Zion Zilberfarb^b
• 关键词：D83 ; E27 ; E37 ; E47
• 刊名：Economics Letters
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：150
• 期：Complete
• 页码：86-90
• 全文大小：542 K
• 卷排序：150

文摘

The study examines the seasonal pattern in expectations. We use Israeli survey forecasts of quarterly inflation without seasonal adjustment. Rationality is tested with respect to (trivial) information about calendar quarter. We find significant prediction biases, which differ across calendar quarters. Seasonal bias is strongest at shorter horizons and in a low inflation environment.