Legislation defined to protect domestic and non-domestic customers from long durations of
interruptions includes additional requirements to system鈥檚 reliability-related performance that distribution network operators (DNOs) must consider in planning the operation and maintenance process of
power supply systems. DNOs are required to restore the
supply to interrupted customers that fall into 鈥渦nprotected鈥?customer class within a given period of time, otherwise penalties are applied. In order to meet these requirements, comprehensive strategies must be defined based on upfront analyses. Accordingly, this paper proposes a deterministic algorithm for estimating DNOs鈥?risk of experiencing
interruptions with durations above imposed targets. Besides the Regulator-defined legislation, security of
supply requirements are engaged in the development of the proposed methodology. Failure analysis of network components is used to identify interrupted customers that are grouped into
power demand classes such that the duration of
interruptions can be addressed following the security of
supply requirements. Moreover, the penalty times defined by the Energy Regulator are engaged in the analysis and used as thresholds to quantify the penalty risk that DNOs are exposed to.
The proposed methodology is applied to a typical UK distribution system, whose average reliability performance is also considered in the analysis.