What Does a Mathematical Model Tell About the Impact of Reinfection in Korean Tuberculosis Infection?

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• 作者：Sara Kim ; Seoyun Choe ; Junseong Kim ; Sanga Nam ; Yeon Shin ; Sunmi Lee ; ^{sunmilee@khu.ac.kr" class="auth_mail}
• 关键词：Tuberculosis ; Exogeneous reinfection ; Tuberculosis control measures ; Korea
• 刊名：Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives
• 出版年：February, 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：5
• 期：1
• 页码：40-45
• 全文大小：402 K

文摘

Objectives

According to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, new active tuberculosis (TB) cases have increased since 2001. Some key factors explain and characterize the transmission dynamics of Korean TB infection, such as a higher ratio of latent individuals and a new reporting system implemented in 2001, among others.

Methods

We propose a mathematical TB model that includes exogenous reinfection to gain a better understanding of the recent trend for TB incidence. We divide the simulation time window into two periods, 1970-2000 and 2001-2012, according to the implementation date of a new TB detection system.

Results

Two sets of parameters, including the transmission rate, the latent period, the recovery rate, and the proportion of exogenous reinfection, are estimated using the least-squares method and calibrated to data on the incidence of active TB.

Conclusion

Among some key parameters in the model, the case finding effort turned out to be the most significant impacting component on the reduction in the active TB cases.