The current and future burden of late-onset dementia in the United Kingdom: Estimates and interventions

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• 作者：Fraser I. Lewis^a ; ^{flewis@ohe.org} ; Paul R. Torgerson^b
• 关键词：Disease burden ; Mathematical model ; Epidemiology
• 刊名：Alzheimer's & Dementia
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：13
• 期：1
• 页码：38-44
• 全文大小：368 K
• 卷排序：13

文摘

We estimate the burden of late-onset dementia in the United Kingdom through to 2025 and assess the impact of potential interventions.MethodsWe compute disability adjusted life years (DALYs) through to 2025 and consider three interventions, all assumed launched in 2018; (1) an optimistic limiting case of a 100% preventive intervention with immediate uptake of 100% of the population at risk; (2) an intervention which delays onset by 5 years, linear uptake to 50% after 5 years; (3) as (2) but uptake 75% after 5 years.ResultsBy 2025, the DALY burden will have increased by 42% from the Global Disease Burden 2010 estimate. Intervention results: (1) a 9% decrease by 2025; (2) a 33% increase; and (3) a 28% increase.DiscussionAt current prevalence rates, the ability of an intervention to offset the projected increase in DALY burden of dementia in the United Kingdom by 2025 appears low.