Driving forces of the epidemic at the its first stages was direct contact of infected wild boars between each other and with traditionally free ranged domestic pigs in backyard farms. The next stage developed due to illegal movement of pig products contaminated by African swine fever virus (ASFV) from affected regions and swill feeding, and inefficient implementation of measures to prevent and control ASF. From 2010 through 2012, ASF spread to other, previously unaffected regions of the RF. Most of outbreaks in the southern regions (Krasnodar, Stavropol, Rostov regions) are secondary.
Currently, the disease situation observed in endemic areas of the RF, including the southern Krasnodar and Volgograd regions and the central Tver¡¯ region, is very complicated. In 2012, a large number of outbreaks in domestic pigs and in wild boars were reported. The circulating ASFV is highly virulent and has maintained its virulence throughout the epidemic since its introduction in 2007.
Considering the forces currently driving the ASF epidemic - circulation of ASF virus in wild boars, ineffectiveness of prevention and control measures, lack of common interest in eradicating the disease and absence of a nationally funded eradication program - continued outbreaks, including those in previously unaffected regions of the RF, can be expected.