Awareness of unawareness: A theory of decision making in the face of ignorance

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• 作者：Edi Karni^a ; ^b ; ¹ ; ^{karni@jhu.edu} ; Marie-Louise Vierø ; ^c ; ² ; ^{viero@econ.queensu.ca}
• 关键词：D8 ; D81 ; D83
• 刊名：Journal of Economic Theory
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：March 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：168
• 期：Complete
• 页码：301-328
• 全文大小：491 K
• 卷排序：168

文摘

In the wake of growing awareness, decision makers anticipate that they might acquire knowledge that, in their current state of ignorance, is unimaginable. Supposedly, this anticipation manifests itself in the decision makers' choice behavior. In this paper we model the anticipation of growing awareness, lay choice-based axiomatic foundations to a subjective expected utility representation of beliefs about the likelihood of discovering unknown consequences, and assign utility to consequences that are not only unimaginable but may also be nonexistent. In so doing, we maintain the flavor of reverse Bayesianism of  and .