A substantial body of stylized facts
and empirical evidence exists regarding the relationships between
financial variables
and the
macroeconomy in the United States. However, the question of whether this evidence is consistent with the cases of small open economies is less known. This paper focuses on the forecasting content of stock returns
and volatility vs. the term spread for GDP, private consumption, industrial production
and the inflation rate in Finl
and.
Our results suggest that during normal times, the term spread is a much better tool than stock market variables for predicting real activity. However, during exceptional times, such as the recent financial crisis, the forecast performance is improved by combining the term spread and the stock market information.