A risk measurement tool for an underground electricity distribution system considering the consequences and uncertainties of manhole events
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- 作者：Thalles Vitelli Garcez ; Adiel Teixeira de Almeida
- 关键词：Risk measure ; Manhole events ; Arc flash ; Underground electric power systems
- 刊名：Reliability Engineering and System Safety
- 出版年：April, 2014
- 年：2014
- 卷：124
- 期：Complete
- 页码：68-80
- 全文大小：1267 K
文摘
This paper explores a risk measure of underground vaults that considers the consequences of arc faults. The increasing use of underground systems, together with the aging of networks, the lack of maintenance and interference from other (third party) underground systems nearby have caused many accidents in urban areas, thus endangering human life. The involvement of a large number (hundreds or thousands) of underground vaults with different characteristics, the lack of historical data on modes of failure, the rarity of the occurrence of some faults, the magnitude of their consequences and the involvement of a complex environment surrounding the hazard zone make risk management even more complex and uncertain. Furthermore, given that the (monetary, time, staff, etc.) resources of an electrical power company are limited and scarce, it is necessary to use decision-making tools that aggregate the consequences and the uncertainties to assess the risks jointly with the preference structure of the company, thus solving the problem more realistically. Therefore, this paper puts forward the use of an additional risk analysis for manhole events in underground electrical distribution networks with a view to its being used as a decision aid tool in risk management. As an illustration of the use of the risk measurement tool proposed, a numerical application is presented. The result rather than showing a ranking of underground vaults, gives a measure of the risk used that can show the decision-maker (DM) how much better one group of alternatives (formed by alternatives with quite similar risk values) is than other groups, based on the DM鈥檚 attitude to risk and grounded on the axiomatic structure of utility theory.