Modelling cereal crops to assess future climate risk for family food self-sufficiency in southern Mali

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• 作者：Bouba Traore^a ; ^b ; ¹ ; ^{boubasiditraore@yahoo.fr} ; ^{B.Traore@cgiar.org} ; Katrien Descheemaeker^c ; Mark T. van Wijk^d ; Marc Corbeels^e ; ^f ; Iwan Supit^g ; Ken E. Giller^c
• 关键词：Crop simulation modelling ; Planting date ; Fertilizer use ; APSIM ; Sub-Saharan Africa ; Climate change
• 刊名：Field Crops Research
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：1 February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：201
• 期：Complete
• 页码：133-145
• 全文大小：846 K
• 卷排序：201

文摘

By mid-century maize grain yields are predicted to decrease between 51% to 57% under current farmer’s fertilizer practices. Average yield losses of millet are predicted to be less severe i.e. between 7% to 12%. Mineral fertilizer use can offset millet yield losses in sharp contrast to maize. Early planting and fertilizer use will not result in food self-sufficiency of the small-sized farms in southern Mali.