A forecasting model of the Kenyan economy

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• 作者：Musila ; Jacob Wanjala ; Rao ; U.L. Gouranga
• 关键词：E1 ; E6 ; O5 ; Macroeconomic model ; Cointegration ; Impact analysis
• 刊名：Economic Modelling
• 出版年：2002
• 出版时间：November, 2002
• 年：2002
• 卷：19
• 期：5
• 页码：801-814
• 全文大小：117 K

文摘

A demand-oriented macroeconometric model of the Kenyan economy is developed and estimated in line with the cointegration technique. The estimated structure of the model is used to perform policy simulation experiments to determine the sensitivity of key macroeconomic variables to changes in exchange rate, net government current expenditure and nominal interest rate. The results of policy simulation experiments reveal that the exchange rate and fiscal policies are relatively more effective than the monetary policy, i.e. changing the nominal interest rate, in influencing the level of economic activity. The results point to the possibility of devaluation improving the international trade balance.