To evaluate the distribution of the familial risk in a series of incident cases of pancreatic adenocarcinoma.
The lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer was calculated by PancPro for a hypothetical 40-year-old son of 570 consecutive probands with pancreatic cancer.
The 570 risk values were included between 1 % and 13 % . The distribution was bimodal, with the antimode located at risk = 7.5 % . Considering a 10-fold risk over the general population as a threshold for including a subject in a surveillance program, 19 families (3.3 % ) would be selected, totalling 92 first-degree relatives with age >40 years.
PancPro is a valid instrument to rank families based on risk of pancreatic cancer.