Interpretive review of conceptual frameworks and research models that inform Australia’s agricultural vulnerability to climate change

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• 作者：Leonie J. Pearson ; Rohan Nelsonc ; Steve Crimp ; Jenny Langridge
• 关键词：Outcome vulnerability ; Contextual vulnerability ; Biophysical models
• 刊名：Environmental Modelling and Software
• 出版年：2011
• 出版时间：February 2011
• 年：2011
• 卷：26
• 期：2
• 页码：113-123
• 全文大小：388 K

文摘

Agriculture in Australia is highly vulnerable to climate change. Understanding the sector’s vulnerability is critical to developing immediate policy for the future of the agricultural industries and their communities. This review aims to identify research priorities (frameworks and models) for assessing vulnerability of the Australian agriculture sector to climate change. It achieves this through three objectives: (i) review frameworks for conceptualising vulnerability in agriculture; (ii) document operational models that may contribute to the immediate analysis of vulnerability in Australian agriculture; and (iii) identify gaps in frameworks and models capacity for analysing the vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change. These were achieved by undertaking a literature review and organising a workshop of Australian agricultural climate change modelling experts. Current understanding of agricultural vulnerability uses the outcome vulnerability conceptual framework, it is linear and dependant on the biophysical models which have been developed. Three priorities for biophysical modelling research were identified: expansion to cover all major agricultural industries; address spatial gaps (e.g. south-west Australia); and develop scenarios for shifting between land-uses. However, there is little known on the contextual vulnerability of the Australian agricultural sector, therefore strategic investment into contextual vulnerability frameworks is necessary, i.e. open systems, multiple exogenous impacts, use qualitative methods, and generate spatially specific outcomes.