The British general election: Synthetic forecasts
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- 作者：Michael S. Lewis-Becka ; michael-lewis-beck@uiowa.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Richard Nadeaub ; richard.nadeau@umontreal.ca" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; É ; ric Bé ; langerc ; eric.belanger3@mcgill.ca" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author
- 关键词：Synthetic models ; Optimal lead time ; Combining election forecasts
- 刊名：Electoral Studies
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：March 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：41
- 期：Complete
- 页码：264-268
- 全文大小：208 K
文摘
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We combine different forecasting approaches, structural and polling.
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We experiment with different lead times, finding 4 months optimal.
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The synthetic model here could be applied to other cases.