Factor Analysis of Traffic Organization and Safety Systems

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Igor Pugachev^a ; ^{ipugachev@mail.khstu.ru} ; Yrii Kulikov^a ; ^{000135@pnu.edu.ru} ; Gennadii Markelov^a ; ^{teledv@inbox.ru} ; Nikolai Sheshera^b ; ^{kolyaka239@mail.ru}
• 关键词：accident rate ; motorization ; injury rate ; subjective and objective risks ; accident rate coefficient.
• 刊名：Transportation Research Procedia
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：20
• 期：Complete
• 页码：529-535
• 全文大小：256 K
• 卷排序：20

文摘

The paper describes the analysis of accidents retrospection and motorization of Russia since the beginning of the third millennium in a graphic form of time sequences, according to the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, which revealed development trends of the analyzed parameters. The federal target program focuses on target results of its implementation and multi-factorial effect on the accident rate and severity of injuries. This enables to choose the most powerful and effective factors, following the criterion of reduction of mortality and severity of injuries of accidents, out of a multiple set of subjective, objective, basic and associated factors contributing to road accidents and injuries. In our opinion, one of the most important aggregate factors in the whole range of the factor set is the road as an element of the system characterized by different factors of accident risks.Performed studies of road traffic network (case study of Khabarovsk road traffic network) identified the opportunity to improve traffic safety and reduce injuries through accident risk coefficients obtained by logistic regression with a chi-squared test χ2. The method accounted for the level of motorization among the city inhabitants and the structure of the vehicle fleet by the type of vehicles involved into accidents. Some shortcomings of the regulatory and legal framework were revealed; some innovative objective factors and additional activities to increase efficiency of accident combating were proposed.