Multi-agent simulation of adoption of alternative fuels

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Oscar van Vliet ; Bert de Vries ; André ; Faaij ; Wim Turkenburg ; W ; er Jager
• 关键词：Agent-based modelling ; Energy transition ; Innovation diffusion ; Automotive fuels ; Biofuels
• 刊名：Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
• 出版年：2010
• 出版时间：August 2010
• 年：2010
• 卷：15
• 期：6
• 页码：326-342
• 全文大小：701 K

文摘

We have formalized and parameterized a model for the production of six transport fuels and six fuels blends from six feedstocks through 13 different production chains, and their adoption of by 11 distinct subpopulations of motorists. The motorists are represented by agents that use heuristics to choose a fuel on the basis of three attributes and a social feedback loop. Adoption of specific fuels is mostly driven by price differences, but other factors play a role if prices are similar. The results are not always intuitive and do not always show up immediately. We find that sustained combinations of interventions are required to bring about a transition away from petrol or diesel. Adoption of alternative fuels was most often confined to niche markets with a share of 5 % or lower. Only in a single case was a complete fuel transition observed.