Response to Prof. O’Hagan

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• 作者：Oswaldo Morales-Napoles ; Dorota Kurowicka ; Alfred Roelen
• 关键词：Fine particles ; Expert elicitation ; Mortality ; Kuwaiti oil fires
• 刊名：Reliability Engineering and System Safety
• 出版年：2008
• 出版时间：May 2008
• 年：2008
• 卷：93
• 期：5
• 页码：771
• 全文大小：77 K

文摘

Several of the papers in this special issue are in one way or another linked to Cooke's “classical” method for combining expert probability distributions. This comment focuses on characteristics of that method. In particular, I consider two questions: does the weighting scheme give the experts a positive incentive to report their beliefs honestly for each variable? How does Cooke's method perform when evaluated out-of-sample?