An Integrated Approach for Risk Assessment of CO₂ Infrastructure in the COCATE Project

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• 作者：Knut Kvien ; Todd Flach ; Semere Solomon ; Oswaldo Morales Napoles ; Corina Hulsbosch-Dam ; Mark Spruijt
• 关键词：Risk assessment ; CO2 infrastructure ; COCATE ; Bayesian belief network ; loss-of-containment
• 刊名：Energy Procedia
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：37
• 期：Complete
• 页码：2932-2940
• 全文大小：295 K

文摘

An innovative risk analysis model has been developed in order to quantify and analyse safety risks related to loss-of- containment scenarios in the pipeline transport of CO₂. The risk model integrates the identified failure modes, consequence estimates and emergency response, producing consistent risk profiles based on complete outcome spaces and for different system design choices. The method involves integration in a Bayesian Belief Network (BN) of analytical equations for gas dispersion combined with statistics and expert estimates of particularly uncertain variables. Future failure initiators, scenarios and impacts are captured in a graphical structure which represents and calculates the effects of common causes. The test case for the integrated risk model will be a large CO₂ capture and transport network at the Le Havre industrial zone with export to Rotterdam. The primary relative advantages of the BN risk model approach are discussed.