Risk of in-hospital mortality identified according to the typology of patients with acute heart failure: Classification tree analysis on data from the Acute Heart Failure Database-Main registry

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• 作者：Daniela Tomcikova ; MSc^a ; Marian Felsoci ; MD^b ; ^c ; Jindrich Spinar ; Prof ; MD ; PhD ; FESC^b ; ^c ; ^d ; Roman Miklik ; MD ; PhD^c ; ^d ; Tereza Mikusova ; MD^c ; ^d ; ^e ; Jiri Vitovec ; Prof ; MD ; PhD ; FESC^c ; ^e ; Lenka Spinarova^c ; ^e ; Petr Widimsky ; Prof ; MD ; DSc ; FESC^f ; Ales Linhart ; Prof ; MD ; DSc ; FESC^g ; Jan Belohlavek^g ; Marian Fedorco^h ; Cestmir Cihalik^h ; Filip Malekⁱ ; Miroslav Bambuch^j ; Jan Vaclavik ; MD ; PhD^h ; Jiri Kettner ; Assoc Prof ; MD ; PhD^k ; Jiri Jarkovsky ; MSc ; PhD^a ; Ladislav Dusek ; Assoc Prof ; MSc ; PhD^a ; Jiri Parenica ; MD ; MSc ; PhD^b ; ^c ; ^d ; ^{jiri.parenica@atlas.cz}
• 关键词：Acute heart failure ; Classification tree ; In-hospital mortality ; AHEAD
• 刊名：Journal of Critical Care
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：June, 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：28
• 期：3
• 页码：250-258
• 全文大小：299 K

文摘

Purpose

The purposes of this study are to identify the strongest clinical parameters in relation to in-hospital mortality, which are available in the earliest phase of the hospitalization of patients, and to create an easy tool for the early identification of patients at risk.

Materials and Methods

The classification and regression tree analysis was applied to data from the Acute Heart Failure Database-Main registry comprising patients admitted to specialized cardiology centers with all syndromes of acute heart failure. The classification model was built on derivation cohort (n = 2543) and evaluated on validation cohort (n = 1387).

Results

The classification tree stratifies patients according to the presence of cardiogenic shock (CS), the level of creatinine, and the systolic blood pressure (SBP) at admission into the 5 risk groups with in-hospital mortality ranging from 2.8 % to 66.2 % . Patients without CS and creatinine level of 155 ¦Ìmol/L or less were classified into very-low-risk group; patients without CS, creatinine level greater than 155 ¦Ìmol/L, and SBP greater than 103 mm Hg, into low-risk group, whereas patients without CS, creatinine level greater than 155 ¦Ìmol/L, and SBP of 103 mm Hg or lower, into intermediate-risk group. The high-risk group patients had CS and creatinine of 140 ¦Ìmol/L or less; patients with CS and creatinine level greater than 140 ¦Ìmol/L belong to very-high-risk group. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.823 and 0.832, and the value of Brier's score was estimated on level 0.091 and 0.084, for the derivation and the validation cohort, respectively.

Conclusions

The presented classification model effectively stratified patients with all syndromes of acute heart failure into in-hospital mortality risk groups and might be of advantage for clinical practice.