Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach
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- 作者：A.E. Clements ; A.S. Hurn ; Z. Li ; zili.li@connect.qut.edu.au" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author
- 关键词：Short-term load forecasting ; Modelling seasonality ; Intra-day load correlation
- 刊名：European Journal of Operational Research
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：1 June 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：251
- 期：2
- 页码：522-530
- 全文大小：767 K
文摘
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A multiple equation time series model is built to forecast electricity load.
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Interactions in seasonal patterns are given special prominence.
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The model is easily estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares.
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The model achieves a mean absolute percentage error of 1.36% in day-ahead forecasting over 11 years.
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Forecasts outperform the industry standard by about a third.