High-level integrated deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy cost-duration analysis aids project planning and monitoring, focusing on uncertainties and earned value metrics

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• 作者：David A. Wood ^{dw@dwasolutions.com}
• 关键词：Project cost-duration EVM analysis ; Stochastic fuzzy project performance models ; Earned duration for critical path ; Budget and schedule downside risks ; Project to-completion forecasts ; Quantified project cost-duration uncertainty
• 刊名：Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：37
• 期：Complete
• 页码：303-326
• 全文大小：6127 K
• 卷排序：37

文摘

Cost-duration network analysis of facilities projects developed around high-level work breakdown progress diagrams. Deterministic, fuzzy and stochastic analysis integrated to provide insight to different facets of cost-duration uncertainty. Critical path focus to earned duration analysis providing to-completion duration forecasts linked to work item criticality. Calibrating fuzzy and stochastic analysis to provide comparable cost-duration progress and to-completion forecasts. Improving the reliability of to-completion forecasts by selecting metrics with low mean absolute percentage errors.