Forecasting Alcohol Consumption in the Czech Republic

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• 作者：Tereza Slová ; čková ; ; ^{xslovack@mendelu.cz" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Naďa Birčiaková ; Jana Stá ; vková
• 关键词：alcohol consumption ; pure alcohol ; trend forecast prediction ; the ARIMA model
• 刊名：Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：31 May 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：220
• 期：Complete
• 页码：472-480
• 全文大小：260 K

文摘

The paper deals with a forecast of developments in alcohol consumption based on current alcohol consumption per capita (expressed in litres of pure alcohol), and time series extrapolations. Alcohol consumption is to be considered from the vantage point of knowing the specifics of the product and the consequences of its excessive consumption. The predictive methodology makes use of the Box-Jenkins method; the ARIMA model, taking into account the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation process, which is a prerequisite for the successful identification of a time series model; model parameter estimation; appropriate transformations of time series; determining the order of differentiation and subsequent verification of the model. The chosen methodology for future trends in alcohol consumptions is a prerequisite for the proposed optional measures to control alcohol consumption in the Czech Republic. Due to the long term nature of the process to draw up and implement alcohol consumption regulation measures, the forecast covers the forthcoming 10 years.