Simulation of the space debris environment in LEO using a simplified approach

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• 作者：Christopher Kebschull^a ; ^{c.kebschull@tu-braunschweig.de} ; Philipp Scheidemann^a ; Sebastian Hesselbach^a ; Jonas Radtke^a ; Vitali Braun^b ; H. Krag^b ; Enrico Stoll^a
• 关键词：Evolution ; Space debris environment ; Environmental Criticality
• 刊名：Advances in Space Research
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：1 January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：59
• 期：1
• 页码：166-180
• 全文大小：1436 K
• 卷排序：59

文摘

Several numerical approaches exist to simulate the evolution of the space debris environment. These simulations usually rely on the propagation of a large population of objects in order to determine the collision probability for each object. Explosion and collision events are triggered randomly using a Monte-Carlo (MC) approach. So in many different scenarios different objects are fragmented and contribute to a different version of the space debris environment. The results of the single Monte-Carlo runs therefore represent the whole spectrum of possible evolutions of the space debris environment. For the comparison of different scenarios, in general the average of all MC runs together with its standard deviation is used. This method is computationally very expensive due to the propagation of thousands of objects over long timeframes and the application of the MC method.At the Institute of Space Systems (IRAS) a model capable of describing the evolution of the space debris environment has been developed and implemented. The model is based on source and sink mechanisms, where yearly launches as well as collisions and explosions are considered as sources. The natural decay and post mission disposal measures are the only sink mechanisms. This method reduces the computational costs tremendously. In order to achieve this benefit a few simplifications have been applied. The approach of the model partitions the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) region into altitude shells. Only two kinds of objects are considered, intact bodies and fragments, which are also divided into diameter bins. As an extension to a previously presented model the eccentricity has additionally been taken into account with 67 eccentricity bins. While a set of differential equations has been implemented in a generic manner, the Euler method was chosen to integrate the equations for a given time span. For this paper parameters have been derived so that the model is able to reflect the results of the numerical MC-based simulation Long-term Utility for Collision Analysis (LUCA), which is also being developed at the IRAS. The evolution of the population in LEO for a 200 years time span is shown and compared for both approaches using step sizes of 1 year. For selected objects in LEO the collision flux values are shown. Additionally a value called environmental criticality (EC) is derived. It describes the effect an object can have on the space debris environment. In conclusion the field of application for such a fast model is shown.