On the meaning of the likelihood ratio: Is a large number always an indication of strength of evidence?

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• 作者：Hinda Haned ; Guro D酶rum ; Thore Egel ; Peter Gill
• 关键词：Likelihood ratio ; Non-contributor test ; p-Value ; DNA mixtures
• 刊名：Forensic Science International: Genetics Supplement Series
• 出版年：2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：4
• 期：1
• 页码：e176-e177
• 全文大小：463 K

文摘

There is general lack of awareness that high LR based on complex propositions e.g. three contributors, does not necessarily translate into probative evidence against a suspect. In some cases there is an increased chance of false inclusion of a person of interest. This is an issue for all LR-based models. One way to address this issue is to further evaluate or qualify the estimated LR by a performance test. Based on simulations, this was achieved by non-contributor-testing: replacing the reference profile of interest (typically the suspect's profile), by the profile of a simulated random man. An exact p-value can also be calculated, giving the chance of observing an LR-value exceeding the estimated if the defense hypothesis is true.