Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of a second generation energy production system from short rotation poplar in Eastern Germany and its accompanied uncertainties

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• 作者：Anja Hansen ; Andreas Meyer-Aurich ; Annette Prochnow
• 关键词：Short rotation coppice ; Greenhouse gas mitigation potential ; Bio-electricity generation ; Uncertainty ; Second generation bioenergy ; Monte Carlo simulations
• 刊名：Biomass and Bioenergy
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：September, 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：56
• 期：Complete
• 页码：104-115
• 全文大小：698 K

文摘

This study investigates the variance of the overall greenhouse gas mitigation potential of a complete second generation stationary bio-electricity production system, generated by poplar wood chips (Populus spec.) in Germany, using Monte Carlo simulations. We computed the GHG emissions as E_B = (?0.034 ¡À 0.021) kg CO_2e MJ^?1 (mean ¡À SD) and the mitigation factor as MF_B = (0.274 ¡À 0.021) kg CO_2e MJ^?1 following a life cycle assessment-based approach. Additionally, avoided nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions due to land use change were considered in the assessment. The most important factor for the overall mitigation variability was the uncertainty of the organic carbon changes in the soil, followed by the variability of yields. The uncertainty of (i) direct N₂O emissions from the poplar site or (ii) the reference rye site as well as (iii) the uncertainty of heat recovery percentage was of minor importance. Uncertainties in the global warming potentials of nitrous oxide and methane and in the transport distance were found to be irrelevant.

The uncertainty of the GHG mitigation which was associated with this specific electricity generation by poplar wood chips gasification was significantly lower compared to the variability of another common bio-electricity system (biogas). Uncertainty implications seem to be system-specific and therefore should be analysed separately for each bioenergy pathway under consideration.