We examined a total of 744 patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE) who were enrolled in a Spanish multicenter study. Patients were monitored every 6 months during the first two years, and then once a year thereafter. Transthoracic echocardiography was used to screen patients with a clinical suspicion of CTEPH during follow-up. Pulmonary arterial hypertension was defined as an estimated pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PAP) > 50 mm Hg. The index thromboembolic episode was considered severe if: (a) the patient was immobilized for medical reasons; or (b) systolic blood pressure was less than 90 mm Hg; or (c) troponin T values were above the reference range.
The incidence of PAP > 50 mm Hg at 36 months was 8.3 % (95 % confidence interval = 4.6 % –14.5 % ). Statistical analysis showed a highly significant association between a severe index thromboembolic episode and the subsequent detection of PAP > 50 mm Hg on echocardiography, with high positive likelihood ratio (2.40) and negative predictive value (> 0.97).
Patients with a severe index thromboembolic episode would constitute a high-risk group for the development of CTEPH. This group of patients should be subjected to a strict follow-up protocol.