Critical technologies for sustainable energy development in Brazil: technological foresight based on scenario modelling
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- 作者：Larissa Pupo Nogueira de Oliveira ; larissa@ppe.ufrj.br" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Pedro Rua Rodriguez Rochedo ; Joana Portugal-Pereira ; Bettina Susanne Hoffmann ; Raymundo Aragã ; o ; Rodrigo Milani ; André ; F.P. de Lucena ; Alexandre Szklo ; Roberto Schaeffer
- 关键词：Low carbon scenarios ; Integrated modelling ; Foresight ; Technological innovation
- 刊名：Journal of Cleaner Production
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：1 September 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：130
- 期：Complete
- 页码：12-24
- 全文大小：3104 K
文摘
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A novel foresight-based methodology under a low carbon policy context is developed.
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An integrated modelling framework is combined with the foresight method.
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The methodology is applied to Brazil's energy system as a tool to policy-making.
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Results show that coal, natural gas, wind and biomass are important energy sources.
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The methodology may help emerging countries to deal with carbon emission mitigation.