Manned missions to Mars: Minimizing risks of failure

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• 作者：Jean-Marc Salotti ; Ephraim Suhir
• 关键词：ALT ; accelerated life testing ; AT ; accelerated testing ; BIT ; burn-in testing ; CL ; cargo lander ; DEPDF ; double exponential probability distribution function ; DFOAT ; FOAT at the design stage ; DfR ; design for reliability ; EDL ; entry descent and landing ; ERV
• 刊名：Acta Astronautica
• 出版年：2014
• 出版时间：January, 2014
• 年：2014
• 卷：93
• 期：Complete
• 页码：148-161
• 全文大小：804 K

文摘

Some major risks-of-failure issues for the future manned missions to Mars are discussed, with an objective to address criteria for making such missions possible, successful, safe and cost-effective. The following astronautical and instrumentation-and-equipment-reliability related aspects of the missions are considered: redundancies and backup strategies; costs; assessed probability of failure as a suitable reliability criterion for the instrumentation (equipment); probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of the mission success and safety. It is concluded that parametric risk modeling is a must for a risk-driven decision-making process.