Comparison of risk scores for the prediction of stroke in African Americans: Findings from the Jackson Heart Study

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• 作者：Randi E. Foraker ; PhD ; MA ; FAHA^a ; ^{rforaker@cph.osu.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Melissa Greiner ; MS^b ; ^{Melissa.Greiner@duke.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Mario Sims ; PhD^c ; ^{msims2@umc.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Katherine L. Tucker ; PhD^d ; ^{Katherine_Tucker@uml.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Amytis Towfighi ; MD^e ; ^{atowfighi@dhs.lacounty.gov" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Aurelian Bidulescu ; MD ; PhD ; MPH^f ; ^{abidules@indiana.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Abigail B. Shoben ; PhD^g ; ^{ashoben@cph.osu.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Sakima Smith ; MD ; MPH^h ; ^{Sakima.Smith@osumc.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Sameera Talegawkar ; PhD ; MHScⁱ ; ^{stalega1@jhu.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Chad Blackshear ; MS^j ; ^{cblackshear@umc.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Wei Wang ; PhD^j ; ^{wwang@umc.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Natalie Chantelle Hardy ; MPH^b ; ^{chantelle.hardy@duke.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Emily O'Brien ; PhD^b ; ^{emily.obrien@duke.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author}
• 关键词：AHA ; American Heart Association ; ARIC ; Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities ; ASA ; American Stroke Association ; BP ; blood pressure ; CHD ; coronary heart disease ; CI ; confidence interval ; CVD ; cardiovascular disease ; CVH ; cardiovascular health ; HR ; hazard ratio ; JHS ; Jackson Heart Study ; REGARDS ; Reasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke
• 刊名：American Heart Journal
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：July 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：177
• 期：Complete
• 页码：25-32
• 全文大小：324 K

文摘

Evidence from existing cohort studies supports the prediction of incident coronary heart disease and stroke using 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores and the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association's cardiovascular health (CVH) metric.

c_2">Methods

We included all Jackson Heart Study participants with complete scoring information at the baseline study visit (2000-2004) who had no history of stroke (n = 4,140). We used Kaplan-Meier methods to calculate the cumulative incidence of stroke and used Cox models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for stroke according to CVD risk and CVH score. We compared the discrimination of the 2 models according to the Harrell c index and plotted predicted vs observed stroke risk calibration plots for each of the 2 models.

c_3">Results

The median age of the African American participants was 54.5 years, and 65% were female. The cumulative incidence of stroke increased across worsening categories of CVD risk and CVH. A 1-unit increase in CVD risk increased the hazard of stroke (1.07, 1.06-1.08), whereas each 1-unit increase in CVH corresponded to a decreased hazard of stroke (0.76, 0.69-0.83). As evidenced by the c statistics, the CVH model was less discriminating than the CVD risk model (0.59 [0.55-0.64] vs 0.79 [0.76-0.83]).

c_4">Conclusions

Both scores were associated with incident stroke in a dose-response fashion; however, the CVD risk model was more discriminating than the CVH model. The CVH score may still be preferable for its simplicity in application to broad patient populations and public health efforts.