Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand

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• 作者：Eakkapong Duangdai ; Chulin Likasiri ; ^{chulin.l@cmu.ac.th}
• 关键词：Time series model ; ARMA model ; System of differential equations model ; Scenario analysis ; Seasonal rainfalls ; Forest area
• 刊名：Atmospheric Research
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：1 March 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：185
• 期：Complete
• 页码：1-12
• 全文大小：2642 K
• 卷排序：185

文摘

Time series, ARMA and system of differential equation models are investigated. All 4 models are used to predict seasonal rainfall through the year 2020. The study area is Northern Thailand. We analyze scenarios to study the effect of reforestation policy. Scenarios are business as usual, constant and relating government policy scenarios.