Real-time dynamic modelling for the design of a cluster-randomized phase 3 Ebola vaccine trial in Sierra Leone

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• 作者：A. Camacho^a ; ¹ ; R.M. Eggo^a ; ¹ ; ^{r.eggo@lshtm.ac.uk} ; N. Goeyvaerts^b ; A. Vandebosch^b ; R. Mogg^c ; S. Funk^a ; A.J. Kucharski^a ; C.H. Watson^a ; T. Vangeneugden^b ; W.J. Edmunds^a
• 关键词：Ebola vaccine ; Transmission modelling ; Trial design ; Phase 3 ; Epidemic ; Collaboration
• 刊名：Vaccine
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：23 January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：35
• 期：4
• 页码：544-551
• 全文大小：1222 K
• 卷排序：35

文摘

Phase 3 vaccine trials are challenging to design in epidemics, such as Ebola. A mechanistic transmission model allowed more accurate estimation of declining incidence. Mechanistic models can include change in incidence caused by the use of an effective vaccine. Changes in likely trial feasibility were updated in real time as the epidemic progressed.