A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production

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• 作者：Jianliang  ; Wang^a ;   ; ^{wangjianliang2010@yahoo.cn} ; Lianyong  ; Feng^a ; Lin  ; Zhao^b ; Simon  ; Snowden^c ; Xu  ; Wang^d
• 关键词：Hubbert model ; Generalized weng model ; Oil production forecast
• 刊名：Energy Policy
• 出版年：2011
• 出版时间：December 2011
• 年：2011
• 卷：39
• 期：12
• 页码：7616-7621
• 全文大小：245 K

文摘

This paper introduces two typical multicyclic models: the Hubbert model and the Generalized Weng model. The model-solving process of the two is expounded, and it provides the basis for an empirical analysis of the world's conventional oil production. The results for both show that the world's conventional oil (crude+NGLs) production will reach its peak in 2011 with a production of 30 billion barrels (Gb). In addition, the forecasting effects of these two models, given the same URR are compared, and the intrinsic characteristics of these two models are analyzed. This demonstrates that for specific criteria the multicyclic Generalized Weng model is an improvement on the multicyclic Hubbert model. Finally, based upon the resultant forecast for the world's conventional oil, some suggestions are proposed for China's policy makers.