Application of S-shaped curves

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• 作者：Dmitry Kucharavy ; ^a ; ^{dmitry.kucharavy@insa-strasbourg.fr"" rel=""nofollow} ; Roland De Guio^a
• 关键词：Laws of technical systems evolution ; Resource limitations ; Technology future analysis ; S-shaped curve ; S-curve
• 刊名：Procedia Engineering
• 出版年：2011
• 出版时间：2011
• 年：2011
• 卷：9
• 期：Complete
• 页码：559-572
• 全文大小：456 K

文摘

This paper deals with the application of S-shaped curves in the contexts of inventive problem solving, innovation and technology forecasts. After explaining the origin of the logistic S-curve its application, as seen in publications from different domains, is reviewed. Despite much criticism and the failure to apply the logistic function for long-term forecasting, it continues to be a popular model for describing the evolution of systems (technological, economical, social and others) over time. This paper can help researchers and practitioners to understand the scope of application of S-shaped patterns, their limitations, and peculiarities.