Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis
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- 作者：Neil R. Ericsson<sup> ; sup><sup>ericsson@frb.gov" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding authorsup><sup> ; sup><sup>ericsson@gwu.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding authorsup>Author Vitae
- 关键词：Autometrics ; Bias ; Fed ; Financial crisis ; FOMC ; Forecasts ; GDP ; Great Recession ; Greenbook ; Impulse indicator saturation ; Projections ; Tealbook ; United States
- 刊名：International Journal of Forecasting
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：April-June 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：32
- 期：2
- 页码：571-583
- 全文大小：642 K
文摘
Stekler and Symington (2016) construct indexes that quantify the Federal Open Market Committee’s views about the US economy, as expressed in the minutes of the FOMC’s meetings. These indexes provide insights into the FOMC’s deliberations, especially at the onset of the Great Recession. The current paper complements Stekler and Symington’s analysis by showing that their indexes reveal relatively minor bias in the FOMC’s views when the indexes are reinterpreted as forecasts. Additionally, these indexes provide a proximate mechanism for inferring the Fed staff’s Greenbook forecasts of the US real GDP growth rate, years before the Greenbook’s public release.