Stochastic poromechanical modeling of anthropogenic land subsidence

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• 作者：Massimiliano Ferronato ; Giuseppe Gambolati ; Pietro Teatini and Domenico Baù
• 关键词：Stochastic compressibility ; Land subsidence ; Finite elements ; Monte Carlo simulation
• 刊名：International Journal of Solids and Structures
• 出版年：2006
• 出版时间：June 2006
• 年：2006
• 卷：43
• 期：11-12
• 页码：3324-3336
• 全文大小：542 K

文摘

A key issue in poromechanical modeling, e.g. for predicting anthropogenic land subsidence due to fluid withdrawal, is the evaluation and use of representative mechanical properties for the deforming porous medium at a regional scale. One such property is the vertical uniaxial rock compressibility c_M which can be obtained through either laboratory oedometer tests or in situ measurements, and typically exhibits quite a marked scattering. This paper addresses the influence of the c_M uncertainty on the predicted land settlement using a stochastic simulation approach where c_M is regarded as a random variable and a large number of equally likely c_M realizations are generated and implemented into a poroelastic finite element model. A compressibility law, characterized by a log-normal distribution with depth-dependent mean, constant variance and exponential covariance, is assumed. The Monte Carlo simulation provides a set of responses which can be analyzed statistically. The results from a number of numerical experiments show how the c_M variance and covariance affect the reliability of the simulated land subsidence and provide a quantitative evaluation of the intrinsic uncertainty of the model prediction.