Scenario planning: Pierre Wack’s hidden messages

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• 作者：Thomas J. Chermack ; ^{thomas.chermack@colostate.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author}Author Vitae ; Laura M. CoonsAuthor Vitae
• 关键词：Scenario planning ; Pierre Wack ; Scenarios and strategy
• 刊名：Futures
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：October 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：73
• 期：Complete
• 页码：187-193
• 全文大小：454 K

文摘

The purpose of this paper is to summarize and interpret Pierre Wack’s original views on scenario planning based on his personal papers and documents now accessible at the Pierre Wack Memorial Library at the University of Oxford.

Approach

This article is based on a practical and historical review of several key documents at the Pierre Wack Memorial Library. The theoretical scope of the paper is to view current scenario planning practices in light of the foundational ideas of its originator.

Practical implications

The main goal of the paper is to distill practical advice from Pierre’s documents. These are: a) scenarios must be part of a larger strategy system and the elements are clarified, b) scenarios should not be positioned or sold as the product / outcome of scenario planning, c) the two-day workshop approach to scenario planning is not adequate, and d) scenario planning should not primarily be practiced as group process. These issues are discussed and further explanations and solutions are examined. This article is intended to provoke challenging questions about the nature of current scenario planning practices. We hope this work might change the common approach to scenario planning and offer guidance for avoiding disappointment in scenario planning because it is increasingly practiced inadequately.

Utility

This article features some of Pierre’s original views about what is required for successful scenario planning. Further, this article uses his own words and is based on his personal documents, videos, presentation transcriptions and personal writings that have not before been in the public domain. This article will be of value to any executive, manager or consultant considering scenario planning, who wants to learn how it was originally intended to be practiced, how to get the most out of it, and what to avoid.