An expert-driven causal model of the rhino poaching problem

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• 作者：Hildegarde Koenp>ap>p> ; p>p>bp>p> ; p>p>hkoen@csir.co.zap> ; J.P. de Villiersp>ap>p> ; p>p>bp>p> ; p>p>jdvilliers1@csir.co.zap> ; Henk Roodtp>cp>p> ; p>p>henk.roodt@wintec.ac.nzp> ; Alta de Waalp>dp>p> ; p>p>alta.dewaal@up.ac.zap>
• 关键词：Rhino poaching ; Predictive modeling ; Insufficient data ; Expert knowledge
• 刊名：Ecological Modelling
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：10 March 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：347
• 期：Complete
• 页码：29-39
• 全文大小：2036 K
• 卷排序：347

文摘

Data scarcity is a big challenge in environmental modelling. Rhino poaching is modelled with a Bayesian network and expert knowledge. The causal expert model is explained at the hand of subgroups and nodes. Case-based evaluation is performed to test different scenarios. The expert model is used as a reasoning tool for decision making.