Strategic foresight using a modified Delphi with end-user participation: A case study of the iPad's impact on Taiwan's PC ecosystem

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• 作者：Chih-Young Hung ; ^{cyhung45@yahoo.com.tw} ; ^{cyhung@nctu.edu.tw}Author Vitae ; Wen-Yee LeeAuthor Vitae ; Ding-Shan WangAuthor Vitae
• 关键词：Strategic foresight ; End-user-participated Delphi ; Taiwan's PC ecosystem ; iPad
• 刊名：Technological Forecasting and Social Change
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：March, 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：80
• 期：3
• 页码：485-497
• 全文大小：787 K

文摘

Taiwan is a personal computer (PC) manufacturing powerhouse, producing desktop (DT) computers, notebooks (NB), and netbooks (NetB). However, the emergence of tablets such as Apple's iPad, has threatened the PC market's prospects and significantly affected Taiwan's PC ecosystem. This study proposes a modified Delphi with end-user participation to provide strategic foresight for firms in Taiwan's PC ecosystem. The results show that these firms can adopt the following three strategies in response to the impact of tablets: (1) brand and service innovation, (2) focus on cloud technology and marketing products to China, and (3) cooperating with digital leisure and entertainment industry. We believe that this modified Delphi with end-user-participation model is a valuable foresight tool for products with a short life cycle, such as consumer electronics and fashion products.