Numerical models explore potential of hydrothermal unrest causing sufficient ice-melt to trigger lahars. The location of surface heat flux and therefore ice melting is strongly controlled by permeability distribution. Rapid surface heat flux and ice-melt requires dynamic permeability enhancement in response to hydrothermal unrest. Melt rates are low compared to eruption initiated melting. Accumulation of melt is required to generate volumes associated with catastrophic lahars.