By 2030, with no government intervention, corn ethanol reaches about 15 bil. gal.(57 bil. liters), and thermochemical biofuel reaches 13 bil. gal.(49 bil. liters) for a combined 28 bil. gal.(106 bil. liters) by 2030.
When the RFS is added to the reference case, there is a substantial increase in both corn ethanol and thermochemical biofuel (about 6 bil. gal.(23 bil. liters) total) in the early years when the RFS is binding.
When combined coal-biomass technology is enabled for the reference (market) case, there is a huge increase in thermochemical biofuel after 2020.
When the RFS is added to the case with combined coal-biomass technology, the main impact is in the early years when the RFS is binding.
The average cost of the binding RFS compared with the reference case is 33?¡é/gal.(9?¡é/liter) in 2015 and 12 to 14?¡é/gal. after that. For the coal-biomass cases, the cost is 24?¡é/gal.(6?¡é/liter) in 2015 and zero after that.
Corn stover is generally less expensive, and it is used exclusively in the early years. As production ratchets up substantially in 2025 or 2030, more dedicated energy crops are used.
We have demonstrated that the standard MARKAL results can be considerably enhanced by combining richer information on the land supply data from GTAP into MARKAL. Indeed, without use of this land supply data, MARKAL and other energy models cannot reliably be used for biofuels economic and policy analysis.