Avian–human influenza epidemic model

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• 作者：Shingo Iwami ; Yasuhiro Takeuchi ; Xianning Liu
• 关键词：SIR model ; SI model ; Endemic ; Pandemic ; Avian influenza ; Mutation
• 刊名：Mathematical Biosciences
• 出版年：2007
• 出版时间：May 2007
• 年：2007
• 卷：207
• 期：1
• 页码：1-25
• 全文大小：311 K

文摘

A mathematical model is proposed to interpret the spread of avian influenza from the bird world to the human world. Our mathematical model warns that two types of the outbreak of avian influenza may occur if the humans do not prevent the spread of avian influenza. Moreover, it suggests that we cannot feel relieved although the total infected humans are kept at low level. In order to prevent spread of avian influenza in the human world, we must take the measures not only for the birds infected with avian influenza to exterminate but also for the humans infected with mutant avian influenza to quarantine when mutant avian influenza has already occurred. In particular, the latter measure is shown to be important to stop the second pandemic of avian influenza.