Forecasting Rail Transit Split with Disaggregated MNL Model

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• 作者：Ming HE ; Xiucheng GUO ; Jiangyu RAN ; Cairui WU ; Wei ZHU ; Chaoping LIU
• 关键词：urban traffic ; urban rail transit ; disaggregate MNL model ; utility function ; mode split ; parameter calibration
• 刊名：Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology
• 出版年：2010
• 出版时间：April 2010
• 年：2010
• 卷：10
• 期：2
• 页码：136-142
• 全文大小：215 K

文摘

The paper focuses on the urban rail transit mode division, and studies the rail transit split forecasting by two stages. At the first stage, the transfer curve method is used to forecast the traffic composition without rail transit. At the second stage, selecting the time and cost as the characteristic variables of the utility function, the study estimates the diverting ratio from all traffic modes to rail and develops the disaggregate model based on revealed preference data and stated preference data survey. In the final section, the paper takes Suzhou city as example to calibrate the model parameters and forecasts rail transit split. The results indicate that the diverting ratio from conventional transit and bike to rail is high. The model improves the accuracy and practicality of the model with consideration of more factors affecting the resident travel mode choice.