Interpreting the movement of oil prices: Driven by fundamentals or bubbles?
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- 作者：Yue-Jun Zhang ; zyjmis@126.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding authorAuthor Vitae ; Ting YaoAuthor Vitae
- 关键词：G15 ; Q4
- 刊名：Economic Modelling
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：June 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：55
- 期：Complete
- 页码：226-240
- 全文大小：2737 K
文摘
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We investigate the drivers of crude oil, diesel and gasoline price rise.
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We employ the LPPL model to identify the specific growing forms of oil prices.
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The price overshooting of crude oil and diesel is mainly influenced by bubbles.
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The gasoline price boom is not determined by bubbles but by fundamentals.
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The predicted crash time of price bubbles is near to that in the historical data.