Assessment of parameter uncertainty in hydrological model using a Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo-based multilevel-factorial-analysis method
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- 作者：Junlong Zhanga ; zjunlong0801@163.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Yongping Lia ; b ; yongping.li@iseis.org" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Guohe Huanga ; b ; 1 ; gordon.huang@uregina.ca" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Xi Chenc ; chenxi@ms.xjb.ac.cn" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Anming Baoc ; baoam@ms.xjb.ac.cn" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author
- 关键词：Factorial analysis ; Interactive effect ; Markov Chain Monte Carlo ; Multilevel ; SWAT ; Uncertainty assessment
- 刊名：Journal of Hydrology
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：July 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：538
- 期：Complete
- 页码：471-486
- 全文大小：1457 K
文摘
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A Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo-based multilevel-factorial-analysis method is proposed.
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The method is applied to the Kaidu River for addressing uncertain model parameters.
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Parameter uncertainty is assessed within a formal Bayesian framework.
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Effects of multiple parameters and their interactions are revealed.
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The findings are validated using a variance-based sensitivity analysis method.