Using Monte Carlo simulation to assess uncertainty and variability of methamphetamine use and prevalence from wastewater analysis

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• 作者：Wei Pei^a ; Qiu-Xia Zhan^a ; Zhi-Yu Yan^a ; Lin-Ke Ge^b ; Peng Zhang^b ; Zhuang Wang^c ; De-Gao Wang^a ; ^{degaowang@dlmu.edu.cn" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author}
• 关键词：Sewage epidemiology ; Methamphetamine ; Prevalence ; Variability ; Uncertainty ; Dependence
• 刊名：International Journal of Drug Policy
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：October 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：36
• 期：Complete
• 页码：1-7
• 全文大小：983 K

文摘

In recent years, methamphetamine (METH) has increased dramatically in China. However, little is known regarding the prevalence of METH use among the general population in China.

Methods

We provided a method to estimate the consumption and prevalence of METH in a city based on wastewater analysis. Monte Carlo simulations were employed to assess the uncertainty and variability of the consumption and prevalence rate in Beijing.

Results

METH consumption in Beijing based on Monte Carlo simulation varied between 1.3 and 5.2 kg per day with a median of 2.6 kg per day. In 2013, the 12-month prevalence of METH use was 0.58% (95% confidential interval 0.08–3.16) among the general population aged 15–64 years. A population-weight consumption map displayed the geographical differences in Beijing.

Conclusions

The proposed method dramatically improved the accuracy and reliability and can be used as a useful complementary tool to official methodologies for drug use monitoring. This report describes the first comprehensive study concerning the prevalence of METH among the general population in mainland China.