- 作者：Duo Quan WANG ; Lin Hua TANG ; Zhen Cheng GU ; Xiang ZHENG ; Wei Kang JIANG
- 关键词：Malaria ; Transmission potential ; Yangtze River Three Gorges Reservoir ; Riparian zone
- 刊名：Biomedical and Environmental Sciences
- 出版年：2013
- 出版时间：January, 2013
- 年：2013
- 卷：26
- 期：1
- 页码：54-62
- 全文大小：1847 K
Objective
To define and evaluate the malaria transmission potential in the Yangtze River, following construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir.Methods
Six villages, namely, Kaixian, Fengjie, Wanzhou, Fuling, Yubei, and Zigui were selected for investigating the malaria transmission potential in the reservoir. Transmission potential was estimated by mathematical modeling and evaluation of the local malaria situation. Factors that influenced the transmission potential were analyzed using Poisson regression analysis in combination with Grey Systematic Theory (based on evaluation by the Delphi method).
Results
Indirect fluorescent antibody data and the incidence of malaria in the local population were consistent with the malaria transmission potential calculated for the area. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis showed a statistically significant association between the riparian zone and the man-biting rate.
Conclusion
The risk of a malaria epidemic can be forecasted using the malaria transmission potential parameters investigated here which was closely correlated with the riparian zone.