Policy relevance of three integrated assessment tools—A comparison with specific reference to agricultural policies

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• 作者：S ; ra Uthes ; Katharina Fricke ; Hannes Kö ; nig ; Peter Z ; er ; Martin van Ittersum ; Stefan Sieber ; Katharina Helming ; Annette Piorr ; Klaus Mü ; ller
• 关键词：Policy impact assessment ; Land use ; Common agricultural policy ; Integrated assessment modelling
• 刊名：Ecological Modelling
• 出版年：2010
• 出版时间：10 September 2010
• 年：2010
• 卷：221
• 期：18
• 页码：2136-2152
• 全文大小：383 K

文摘

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), a system of market support instruments, direct income transfers, and rural development measures, has been put through an ongoing reform process in recent decades. This paper introduces three policy impact assessment tools (SIAT, SEAMLESS-IF, MEA-Scope tool) and analyses how these tools have responded to a number of challenges for integrated assessment modelling as reported in the international literature. Significant progress has been made with regard to modelling linkages whereas other challenges, particularly those related to issues of scale and uncertainty management, require further efforts. It is also analysed which CAP instruments are represented and what kinds of effects can be analysed at different scales. Market instruments and direct payments are comparatively well represented, while the ability to model rural development measures is mostly beyond the scope of these tools. Because each tool has found a different solution for coping with the common challenges of integrated assessment modelling, the choice of one of the tools for a particular application depends strongly on the policy questions being asked. The SIAT provides the big picture via its ability to represent broad changes in policy instruments with EU-wide cross-sector impacts. The most comprehensive analysis of agricultural policy instruments can be obtained with SEAMLESS-IF. The MEA-Scope tool complements the other two approaches with detailed regional profiles.